EVEN IAEA THINKS U.S. REPORT SOFT ON IRAN!

Monitoring Agency Praises U.S. Report, But Keeps Wary Eye on Iran - Elaine Sciolino
The International Atomic Energy Agency on Tuesday publicly embraced the new American intelligence assessment stating that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons effort, but in truth the agency is taking a more cautious approach. "To be frank, we are more skeptical," a senior official close to the agency said. "We don't buy the American analysis 100 percent. We are not that generous with Iran." The official called the American assertion that Iran had "halted" its weapons program in 2003 "somewhat surprising." (New York Times)

Why Does U.S. and Israeli Intelligence Differ? - Yaakov Katz
The U.S. intelligence report released Monday claimed that Iran froze its nuclear military track four years ago. Israel's Mossad claims that the Iranians will be able to develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2009; IDF Military Intelligence warns that Teheran will cross the technological threshold within six months; and now the Americans are putting the timeline toward the middle of the next decade, or 2013 at the earliest. Defense officials in Tel Aviv admitted Tuesday that the report would probably embolden Iran.

The Americans are still traumatized by the blatant intelligence failure vis-a-vis Iraq's alleged WMD and do not want to be caught crying wolf again. Israel takes the more stringent track. As one defense official put it on Tuesday, "It is better to be safe than sorry." (JPost)

Alone on the Battlefield - Alex Fishman
They must be celebrating in Teheran. The American report claiming Iran froze its nuclear weapons development program in 2003 is a below-the-belt blow for the Israeli struggle in the international arena against Iranian nukes. Israeli defense officials fail to understand where the Americans got the idea that Iran has not renewed its nuclear weapons development process. The information available to Israeli and Western intelligence services shows that Iran, due to diplomatic pressures, indeed froze the process in 2003, but the same information shows that the efforts were renewed two years later and are continuing to this day.

Behind closed doors, Israeli defense officials are convinced that U.S. intelligence bodies are simply getting it wrong, both in terms of timetables as well as certain phases in the development of Iran's military nuclear capabilities. Israel has no intention to stop or slow down its preparations in response to a nuclear Iran - but now we may have to do this a bit more alone. (Ynet News)

The Thin Line Between Civilian and Military Nuclear Programs - William J. Broad (New York Times)
When is a nuclear program a nuclear weapons program? The open secret of the nuclear age is that the line between civilian and military programs is extraordinarily thin. One threshold is enriched uranium. Enriched to low levels, uranium can fuel a reactor that produces electrical power - which is what Tehran says it wants to do. But if uranium is purified in spinning centrifuges long enough, and becomes highly enriched, it can fuel an atom bomb.

Relax? Don't. Iran Can Still Build Its Bomb - Bronwen Maddox (Times-UK)
The newly published U.S. intelligence report supports fears that Iran could soon have nuclear weapons. It argues that Iran has been deterred from pursuing them mainly by the fear of U.S. military action, a fear that has now faded. The report makes clear the seriousness of the threat, not the opposite.

Was Bush Behind the Iran Report? - Robert Baer
Bombing Iran, it seems, is now off the table. There's no other reasonable take on the latest National Intelligence Estimate that concludes Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. But there is also no doubt that the Bush White House was behind this NIE and that a 180-degree turn on Iran like this one was greenlighted by the president. The real story behind this NIE is that the Bush Administration has finally concluded Iran is a bridge too far. With Iranian-backed Shi'a groups behaving themselves, things are looking up in Iraq.

Then there are the Gulf Arabs. For the last year and a half, ever since the Bush Administration started to hint that it might hit Iran, they have been sending emissaries to Tehran to assure the Iranians they're not going to help the U.S. But in private, the Gulf Arabs have been reminding Washington that Iran is a rabid dog: Don't even think about kicking it, the Arabs tell us. If you have to do something, shoot it dead. Which is something the U.S. can't do. So how far is Iran from a nuke? The truth is that Iran is a black hole, and it's entirely conceivable Iran could build a bomb and we wouldn't know until they tested it. (TIME)