AFTER DISENGAGEMENT

After the Israeli Withdrawal from Gaza - Barry Rubin (Jerusalem Post)

What, in fact, is the most likely course of events in Palestinian politics after the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza?

• There will be no decline in incitement or change in the public rhetoric of Palestinian officials speaking to their own people. Thus, Israeli suspicions regarding their intentions will be reinforced.
• The Palestinian movement will continue to be oriented toward conquest and revenge rather than nation-state nationalism.
• No stable government with real control over the territory will be created in Gaza. The Palestinian Authority will ignore the road map's provisions about stopping terrorism and disarming radical groups.
• The Israeli withdrawal will be claimed as a victory for terrorism, thus laying the basis for more of the same.
• Palestinian security forces will stand by most of the time and do nothing as not only Hamas and Islamic Jihad but also Fatah gunmen try to attack Israel. Then the Palestinian leadership will scream when Israel retaliates. The big losers here will be the Palestinians themselves since this continuing war will destroy any chance of development.
• Anti-corruption efforts will remain tiny. The new aid money being offered by the West will disappear without a trace.
• The Palestinian leadership will do everything possible to avoid power-sharing, wider democracy, or fair elections.

Does this mean Israel should not withdraw? Actually, one could argue the exact opposite. For if nothing is going to change anyway, why should Israel be bound to the status quo? Take away the excuse of "occupation" and let the world - and, far more importantly, the Palestinians themselves - see the real cause of their problems. Let Israel determine its best deployment of security resources rather than have to be permanently tied down to being in the whole Gaza Strip.

Of course, one should add that Israel largely withdrew from the territory 11 years ago, when it was turned over to the tender mercies of Yasser Arafat. The presence of 7,500 settlers and Israeli control over certain roads had very little effect on the Palestinian situation there.

Hamas to Keep Guns, Separate Force After Disengagement - Eli Ashkenazi
The head of Hamas's Kassam Brigades, Ahmed Al-Ghandour, told reporters in northern Gaza Friday, "Arms is a holy issue. It is impossible for us to abandon our arms even if we all get killed. The issue of arms is not one for discussion." Al-Ghandour, who tops Israel's list of wanted militant suspects, added, "We will preserve our structure and increase our force and we will not join any (Palestinian security) services." Another Hamas leader, Abu Ubaida, said: "We will maintain and preserve the arms of resistance and we will increase our force and arms to liberate all of the Palestinian land. Palestine is not only Gaza." About 1,000 Hamas militants staged an exercise on Friday, simulating the storming of Jewish settlements and attacks on Israeli troops. (Ha'aretz)

See also Islamic Jihad: Attacks Will Continue After Pullout - Khaled Abu Toameh
Islamic Jihad leader Muhammad Hindi said Thursday his group would continue to launch attacks. "The Zionist retreat from the Gaza Strip won't end the resistance," he said. "The resistance will continue until the expulsion of the occupation from all our lands, including the West Bank, Jerusalem, and all of Palestine." "The pressure of the resistance, as well as the steadfastness of our people and the rockets of our fighters all led the enemy to take the decision to run away from the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank," he said. (Jerusalem Post)

Jaffee Center: Terrorism to Shift to West Bank after Disengagement - Dalia Tal
"After the disengagement, terrorism's center of gravity will shift to the West Bank and target the settlements, while Gaza will serve as a rear echelon and support base for this activity," researchers Shalom Harari and Dr. Mark Heller from the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies write in Strategic Assessment quarterly. They say the PA's inability to exercise effective control of events on the ground or produce any tangible benefits for Palestinians will have a negative impact on its political status and strength, and enable Hamas to emerge as the main beneficiary of disengagement. (Globes)

See also Over Gaza: The View from an Israeli Helicopter - Matt Rees
Four miles north of Gaza, the twin smokestacks of the Ashkelon power plant blink their red warning lights. These are within easy range of the rockets of Hamas once Israel takes its troops out of northern Gaza, as are the massive circular fuel tanks around its perimeter, and Israeli officials fear a strike against the plant could cripple Israel's electricity grid. (TIME)