PROFESSOR: ISRAEL GOES TO WAR IN SUMMER TO AVOID ACADEMICS' CRITICISMS

I DON'T KNOW WHICH IS WORSE, THE ANTI-SEMITISM OR THE NARCISSIM. WHO BUT A PARANOID ANTI-SEMITIC ACADEMIC COULD BELIEVE THAT ISRAEL DECIDES WHEN TO GO TO WAR BASED ON HIS VACATION SCHEDULE? WHO BUT AN ACADEMIC COULD BELIEVE THAT HIS ABILITY TO "WHIP UP ANTI-ISRAEL SENTIMENT" INSPIRES FEAR IN ISRAEL?

Israel's summer wars
Mideast studies professor Juan Cole says Israel always launches its "wars of choice," like last summer's conflict with Hezbollah, in the summer — because Western academics are on vacation and less available to whip up anti-Israel sentiment. Martin Kramer asks: How did he know? (Sandbox)

WHETHER THERE WILL BE WAR THIS SUMMER DEPENDS FAR MORE ON THE INTENTIONS OF ISRAEL'S ENEMIES, WHO CARE VERY LITTLE ABOUT WHAT ACADEMICS THINK. THOSE IN AMERICA OFFER THEIR SUPPORT. THOSE IN THEIR OWN COUNTRIES ARE IN JAIL:

A War this Summer? - Ze'ev Schiff (Haaretz)
Will there be war this summer? Apart from Israel, there are four parties - Iran, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas - who must be asked this question. Iran will determine whether Hizbullah launches a new war. Tehran is involved in large-scale military operations in a number of places. A major war today, initiated by Iran, could endanger its main objectives. Hizbullah will not embark on an all-out war if Iran is against it. If it could, Hizbullah would renew its war of attrition, but the organization's freedom of action in Lebanon is limited.

Hamas could ignite a war in Gaza. The more serious leaders of Hamas know that a war this summer would be too early to serve their purposes. In a year from now, Gaza will pose a greater threat to Israel, especially if the government doesn't come up with better solutions to the conflict. What is happening today to Sderot could happen someday to Ashkelon.

There is no question that Syria is readying for combat. Again, the question is whether it has plans to initiate a war. The cautious conclusion is that none of the parties today are interested in an all-out war. But war could erupt by mistake.