WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS

Hard Facts about the Threats Facing Israel - Ehud Ya'ari (Jerusalem Report/ Jerusalem Post)
Over the coming year, there is no doubt that Hamas in Gaza will be producing Kassam-type rockets with a range of 20-25 kms., bringing all of Ashkelon, Kiryat Gat, Netivot, Ofakim and the many kibbutzim and moshavim that surround them into the line of fire.

Over a quarter of a million Israelis will be in range. Moreover, Hamas will be able to fire the rockets from the heart of Gaza, without having to send launch teams to the open areas close to the border fence.

This means that unless there's a miracle, the Israeli government, lacking any alternative, will have to order the army to carry out a major operation to clean up Gaza, along the lines of the successful Operation Defensive Shield in the West Bank in 2002.

In the West Bank, the Fatah movement has in fact ceased to exist, and there is no meaningful process of resuscitation or reform under way in either the PA or Fatah. Instead of gaining strength after the debacle in Gaza, Fatah on the West Bank is growing weaker.

It is becoming clear to all parties involved in the pre-Annapolis conference negotiations that there is no chance of agreement on a declaration that will herald even a hint of a breakthrough.