AFTER ARAFAT

The Day After Arafat - Amit Cohen
The death of Arafat, whether it takes place today or in a year, would constitute a severe crisis for the Palestinian people. Only after he is gone would they come to realize that he has no replacement. The veteran leadership will vanish together with Arafat. Its members' power stemmed from him, and many are identified with the corruption of the PA. Political figures like Abu Mazen or Abu Ala would not be able to replace Arafat since they do not have the support of the street or of Fatah's armed operatives. The young generation of the Tanzim and the al-Aksa Brigades is scattered among gangs, many controlled by Hizballah. The intermediate generation is essentially non-existent. Mohammad Dahlan or Marwan Barghouti could assume the leadership role, but that would be a far-fetched outcome.

Israeli officials see two possible scenarios: One, in which the anarchy gains momentum and lasts for a long period of time, thereby dividing Palestinian territories into several areas with little connection between them, and, two, which is probably more realistic, a group of leaders emerges rather than one leader, which would include Fatah ground commanders, heads of security apparatuses, and politicians like Abu Mazen or Abu Ala. Without Arafat's presence, Hamas would feel more comfortable to establish its status. Yet Hamas is also suffering from a leadership vacuum after the elimination of its leaders. (Maariv International)

See also Everything is Up for Grabs - Danny Rubinstein
Without Arafat, it does not mean the Palestinian movement will become more moderate and serious. The opposite may even be the case, with all-out war erupting in the territories, which will strengthen the infrastructure of terrorism. Abu Mazen, 72, and Abu Ala, 68, are the candidates slated to succeed him in his two primary roles: Abu Mazen as chairman of the PLO's executive committee, and Abu Ala as head of the PA. (Ha'aretz)

SEE ALSO: IDF May Need to Keep Peace for Palestinians - Margot Dudkevitch
When Arafat is gone, "I believe we will witness a settling of accounts and the army will be forced to become involved in order to protect the civilian population," Central Command battalion commander Lt.-Col. Y. said Wednesday. At the same time, fugitives remain holed up in Arafat's compound in Ramallah, where they continue to plan terror attacks. "We are talking about fugitives with blood on their hands who are responsible for the murders of Israeli civilians and soldiers," he said.

SEE ALSO: Arafat's Illness Highlights Absence of Clear Successor - Arnon Regular
There is no one, either in the PA or the PLO, who is clearly in line to serve as Arafat's replacement. There are currently numerous power centers in the territories, and all are expected to fight to succeed Arafat. (Ha'aretz)